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predicted WINNER
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"Gladiator"
WHY: The "Titanic" factor. "Gladiator" is a grandiose, mega-budget, meticulously detailed epic of historical fiction and a win would be Hollywood congratulating itself. But this vote will be tight. If ever a movie from overseas had a legitimate chance of winning Best Picture, this may be the year. But it's more likely that "Crouching Tiger" -- by far the superior picture of the bunch -- will probably have to settle for the Foreign Film prize. Soderbergh's "Traffic" and "Erin Brockovich" should cancel each other out. However, the only movie totally out of the running is "Chocolat," a mediocre flick nominated only because of a saturation-bombing ad campaign by Miramax.
What should win: "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon"
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predicted WINNER
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Ang Lee, "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon"
WHY: Usually Best Director and Best Picture go hand-in-hand, but "Gladiator" just isn't that strong a film and Lee took the Director's Guild award in a cake walk two weeks ago, which virtually guarantees him this prize if history is any indication. Soderbergh, Lee's most viable competition, will cancel himself out.
Who should win: Lee
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predicted WINNER
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Geoffrey Rush, "Quills"
WHY: Frankly, I'm guessing. This category is a complete toss-up. Rush and Harris have the best odds because they both gave incredible performances as biographical characters (which the Academy loves) with mental and/or substance abuse problems (which the Academy loves). Crowe could win, in part as compensation for losing last year, when his astonishing performance in "The Insider" was nominated. But his cranky, wife-stealing public image could sink him. Hanks is probably out because as much as the Academy loves him, they won't want to make him the Oscar poster boy. Bardem, a virtual unknown, is definitely out.
Who should win: Javier Bardem
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predicted WINNER
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Julia Roberts, "Erin Brockovich"
WHY: After 10 years of hits, she's due. Also, even with Soderbergh behind the wheel of "Brockovich," without her there still would be a movie-of-the-week air about the film.
Who should win: Ellen Burstyn, without question.
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predicted WINNER
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Benicio Del Toro, "Traffic"
WHY: Except for some early festival chatter about Dafoe, all the buzz has been his. Only possible upset would be Finney for his high-profile comeback as an adorable grump. Plus Del Toro won Best Actor from the Screen Actors Guild (although Finney won Best Supporting).
Who should win: Willem Dafoe
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predicted WINNER
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Judi Dench, "Chocolat"
WHY: Another guess. It could be Kate Hudson, who won the Golden Globe and has that "daughter of" thing going for her, like last year's winner, Angelina Jolie. But Oscar loves Dench (she won just two years ago for "Shakespeare in Love") and she took the honors at the SAG Awards earlier this month.
Who should win: Julie Walters
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predicted WINNER
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"Almost Famous," Cameron Crowe
WHY: Again, there's a 50-50 chance here, the other serious contender being the "Brockovich" script. But "Almost Famous" has the nostalgia value and everybody in the industry just adores Cameron Crowe.
What should win: "Almost Famous"
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ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
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NOMINEES
"Chocolat," Robert Nelson Jacobs
"Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon," Hui-Ling Wang, James Schamus, Kuo Jung Tsai
"O Brother, Where Art Thou?," Ethan Coen, Joel Coen
"Traffic," Stephen Gaghan
"Wonder Boys," Steve Kloves
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predicted WINNER
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"Traffic," Stephen Gaghan
WHY: The story juggling. Gaghan didn't lose track of a single element of this complex screenplay.
What should win: "Wonder Boys"
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predicted WINNER
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"Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon"
WHY: Because the film's camera is almost as dexterous as the fight scenes it photographs. And because "Crouching Tiger" is going to dominate the awards, even if it doesn't get Best Picture.
What should win: "Crouching Tiger"
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predicted WINNER
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"Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon"
WHY: The fight scenes and the fact that a 20-minute flashback smack in the middle of the film didn't take you out of the story at all.
What should win: "Traffic"
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predicted WINNER
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"The Perfect Storm"
WHY: Ocean sounds are always good for an Oscar. Of course, "U-571" and "Cast Away" qualify on that count, too. Truth be told, this one is too close to call.
What should win: "The Perfect Storm"
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predicted WINNER
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"U-571"
WHY: Because I've got a 50-50 chance of getting it right.
What should win: "Space Cowboys"
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predicted WINNER
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"The Perfect Storm"
WHY: Are you kidding? Did you see that 100-foot wall of water?
What should win: "The Perfect Storm"
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predicted WINNER
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"Gladiator"
WHY: Scale, baby, scale. A total recreation of ancient Rome? That's golden.
What should win: "Gladiator"
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predicted WINNER
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"Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon"
WHY: Oscar voters have a jones for Asian films in this category ("Ran," "The Last Emperor"), and, again, "Tiger" is going to be on a roll.
What should win: "Quills"
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predicted WINNER
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"How the Grinch Stole Christmas"
WHY: Creature designer Rick Baker has won five times before, and let's face it -- that was a pretty awesome Grinch getup.
What should win: "Shadow of the Vampire"
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FOREIGN FILM
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NOMINEES
"Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon" (Taiwan)
"Amores Perros" (Mexico)
"Divided We Fall" (Czech Republic)
"Everybody Famous" (Belgium)
"A Taste of Others" (France)
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DOCUMENTARY
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NOMINEES
"Into the Arms of Strangers"
"Legacy"
"Long Day's Journey Into Night"
"Scottsboro"
"Sound and Fury"
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predicted WINNER
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"Into the Arms of Strangers"
WHY: Always bet on the World War II/Holocaust flick.
What should win: No pick. Haven't seen them.
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predicted WINNER
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"Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon"
WHY: The mystical mood that runs throughout the picture is planted in your senses by this incredible, almost subliminal score.
What should win: "Crouching Tiger"
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predicted WINNER
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"Things Have Changed" from "Wonder Boys"
WHY: When Bob Dylan accepted the Golden Globe for this song, he got a standing ovation. Case closed.
What should win: "I've Seen It All"
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