We perennial Oscar pundits are always grousing about how predictable the Academy is, but when a wildcard year like this rolls around, we always wish we'd kept our mouths shut.

The fact is, while I have a pretty good idea how the acting and writing categories are going to shake out at Sunday's 74th Annual Academy Awards, I haven't a clue what film will win the big prize and I'm taking a stab in the dark on the technical and artistic awards, most of which feature a showdown between the equally proficient "Lord of the Rings" and "Moulin Rouge."

Nevertheless, here are my predictions, uncertain as they are...

Best PICTURE nominees

"A Beautiful Mind"   "Gosford Park"   "In the Bedroom"   "Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring"   "Moulin Rouge"

Predicted WINNER

"A Beautiful Mind" Why: To tell the truth, Best Picture is genuinely up for grabs for the first time in recent memory. "Mind" had the edge until a backlash frenzy began over the film's gross fictionalization and whitewashing of John Forbes Nash's life. The Producer's Guild of America awarded "Moulin Rouge" their Best Picture prize, and that's often a good Oscar predictor, but that eccentric musical is pretty out-there for the generally conservative Academy. But if both "Mind" and "Moulin" are out, that leaves "Lord of the Rings" as the most serious contender, and the while a fantasy has never won Best Picture, this film has a lot of support and was the biggest box office success of the three. I wouldn't be surprised if any of these films won. But for my prediction, I'm sticking with "A Beautiful Mind" simply because the Academy's recent love affair with independent film is largely over and "Mind" the most "Hollywood" movie nominated. What SHOULD win: "Gosford Park"

Best DIRECTOR nominees

Robert Altman, "Gosford Park"   Ron Howard, "A Beautiful Mind"   Peter Jackson, "Lord of the Rings"   David Lynch, "Mulholland Drive"   Ridley Scott, "Black Hawk Down"

Predicted WINNER

Ron Howard, "A Beautiful Mind" Why: Howard is Hollywood's homegrown boy, he has a track record of good movies that made money and many voters think he's overdue, especially since he's never even been nominated before. Who SHOULD win: Peter Jackson

Best ACTOR nominees

Russell Crowe, "A Beautiful Mind"   Sean Penn, "I Am Sam"   Will Smith, "Ali"   Denzel Washington, "Training Day"   Tom Wilkinson, "In the Bedroom"

Predicted WINNER

Denzel Washington, "Training Day" Why: 1) He's due to get recognized for a body of great work. 2) This is arguably his best performance since he won Best Supporting Actor for "Glory" in 1989. 3) The Academy isn't inclined to give Crowe back-to-back Oscars, especially after his egomaniac reputation was enhanced by blowing up over a cut-short speech at last month's BAFTA Awards in England. 4) Three African-Americans are nominated for acting awards this year and after years of heat for its lack of minority recognition, the Academy is going to look pretty bad if at least one of them doesn't win. It's not going to be Will Smith, and Best Actress nom Halle Berry is up against the Sissy Spacek juggernaut (see below). Best Actor statuettes usually don't go to bad guy roles, but better a bad guy role than a bad guy Crowe. Who SHOULD win: Washington

Best ACTRESS nominees

Halle Berry, "Monster's Ball"   Judi Dench, "Iris"   Nicole Kidman, "Moulin Rouge"   Sissy Spacek, "In the Bedroom"   Renee Zellweger, "Bridget Jones's Diary"

Predicted WINNER

Sissy Spacek, "In the Bedroom" Why: Berry won the Screen Actors' Guild award earlier this month, which is usually a good predictor of the Academy Awards, but all the buzz has been about Spacek winning the Oscar, even before the nominations were announced. Who SHOULD win: Judi Dench

Best SUPPORTING ACTOR nominees

Jim Broadbent, "Iris"   Ethan Hawke, "Training Day"   Ben Kingsley, "Sexy Beast"   Ian McKellan, "Lord of the Rings"   Jon Voight, "Ali"

Predicted WINNER

Ben Kingsley, "Sexy Beast" Why: I'm going out on a limb on this one. "Sexy Beast" came out way back in June and there's a ton of talk about Ian McKellan, who was robbed in 1998 when his lead performance in "Gods & Monsters" lost to that clown Roberto Benigni. But Kingsley's brilliant mad-dog gangster performance -- the "anti-Gandhi" it's been called -- is quite literally unforgettable. Who SHOULD win: Kingsley

Best SUPPORTING ACTRESS nominees

Jennifer Connelly, "A Beautiful Mind"   Helen Mirren, "Gosford Park"   Maggie Smith, "Gosford Park"   Marisa Tomei, "In the Bedroom"   Kate Winslet, "Iris"

Predicted WINNER

Jennifer Connelly, "A Beautiful Mind" Why: Momentum, momentum, momentum. There's never been any serious talk about anyone else winning in this category, and the industry has finally caught on to the incredible talent of this hard-working actress whose looks have gotten in the way of her being taken seriously. Plus, she should have been nominated last year for "Requiem for a Dream" and the Academy knows it. Who SHOULD win: Winslet

Best ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY nominees

"Amélie," Guillaume Laurant & Jean-Pierre Jeunet   "Gosford Park," Julian Fellowes   "Memento," Christopher Nolan   "Monster's Ball," Milo Addica & Will Rokos   "The Royal Tenenbaums," Wes Anderson & Owen Wilson

Predicted WINNER

"Memento," Christopher Nolan Why: Because its main rival, the 30-character juggling "Gosford Park" was screened by many Academy members on tapes that had a really bad sound mix, and you can't vote for dialogue that you can't understand. Plus, Nolan's mind-bending backwards storytelling is a deftly clever piece of screenwriting. What SHOULD win: "Memento"

Best ADAPTED SCREENPLAY nominees

"A Beautiful Mind," Akiva Goldsman   "Ghost World," Terry Zwigoff & Daniel Clowes   "In the Bedroom," Rob Festinger & Todd Field   "Lord of the Rings," Peter Jackson, Fran Walsh & Philippa Boynes   "Shrek," Ted Elliot, Terry Rossio, Joe Stillman & Roger S.H. Schulman

Predicted WINNER

"A Beautiful Mind," Akiva Goldsman Why: "Mind" will overcome the controversy regarding Goldsman's gross liberties taken with Nash's life because the only other serious contender -- "Lord of the Rings" -- is mostly action, and action doesn't win screenplay awards. What SHOULD win: "Ghost World"

Best ANIMATED FEATURE nominees

"Jimmy Neutron: Boy Genius"   "Monsters, Inc."   "Shrek"

Predicted WINNER

"Shrek" Why: It made the most money and, in the minds of most people, its terribly clever fairy tale spoofage makes up for the fact that its plot is largely dependent on hackneyed misunderstandings. What SHOULD win: "Monster's, Inc."

Best DOCUMENTARY nominees

"Children Underground"   "Lalee's Kin: The Legacy of Cotton"   "Murder On a Sunday Morning"   "Promises"   "War Photographer"

Predicted WINNER

"Promises" Why: As a documentary about the world view of Israeli and Palestinian children, how can it miss in the current world atmosphere? What SHOULD win: Sorry, I haven't seen any of the nominees.

Best FOREIGN FILM nominees

"Amélie" (France)   "Elling" (Norway)   "Lagaan" (India)   "No Man's Land" (Bosnia)   "Son of the Bride" (Argentina)

Predicted WINNER

"Amélie" Why: Because it's wonderful, wonderful, wonderful. What SHOULD win: "Amélie"

Best CINEMATOGRAPHY nominees

"Amélie"   "Black Hawk Down"   "The Man Who Wasn't There"   "Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring"   "Moulin Rouge"

Predicted WINNER

"The Man Who Wasn't There" Why: Being black-and-white, it stands out from the rest, and the photography is very clever while being very true to the classic film noir style. What SHOULD win: "Lord of the Rings"

Best EDITING nominees

"A Beautiful Mind"   "Black Hawk Down"   "Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring"   "Memento"   "Moulin Rouge"

Predicted WINNER

"Memento" Why: Because it's the editing that makes it easy to follow what's going on even though the story is told backwards in 3 to 5 minute snippets at a time. What SHOULD win: "Memento"

Best SOUND nominees

"Amélie"   "Black Hawk Down"   "Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring"   "Moulin Rouge"   "Pearl Harbor"

Predicted WINNER

"Moulin Rouge" What SHOULD win: "Black Hawk Down"

Best SOUND EDITING nominees

"Monsters, Inc."   "Pearl Harbor"

Predicted WINNER

"Pearl Harbor" What SHOULD win: "Pearl Harbor"

Best VISUAL EFFECTS nominees

"A.I.: Artificial Intelligence"   "Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring"   "Pearl Harbor"

Predicted WINNER

"Lord of the Rings" What SHOULD win: "Rings"

Best ART DIRECTION nominees

"Amélie"   "Gosford Park"   "Harry Potter & the Sorcerer's Stone"   "Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring"   "Moulin Rouge"

Predicted WINNER

It's a toss-up between "Rouge" and "Rings," but I'll say "Rings." What SHOULD win: "Amélie," "Rouge" and "Rings" are all tied in my book.

Best COSTUMES nominees

"The Affair of the Necklace"   "Gosford Park"   "Harry Potter & the Sorcerer's Stone"   "Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring"   "Moulin Rouge"

Predicted WINNER

"Moulin Rouge" What SHOULD win: "Rouge"

Best MAKEUP nominees

"A Beautiful Mind"   "Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring"   "Moulin Rouge"

Predicted WINNER

"Lord of the Rings" What SHOULD win: "Rings"

Best ORIGINAL SCORE nominees

"A.I.: Artificial Intelligence"   "A Beautiful Mind"   "Harry Potter & the Sorcerer's Stone"   "Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring"   "Monsters, Inc."

Predicted WINNER

"Lord of the Rings" What SHOULD win: I didn't like any of them.

Best ORIGINAL SONG nominees

"If I Didn't Have You" from "Monsters, Inc."   "It May Be" from "Lord of the Rings"   "There You'll Be" from "Pearl Harbor"   "Until" from "Kate & Leopold"   "Vanilla Sky" from "Vanilla Sky"

Predicted WINNER

"It May Be" What SHOULD win: Couldn't care less. It's a silly category.