I've never been very good at this Oscar-predicting business, and this year may have been my worst yet. I got only half the categories right. But I take a little pride in small victories, like the fact that I got Best Picture right while Roger Ebert got it wrong, and like the fact that while I picked the wrong Best Supporting Actor winner, I was just about the only pundit who didn't predict Ian McKellan in that category. At least I knew it would be an upset!

But enough about me. Below are the nominees and the winners. My predictions are noted with a bullet and my preferences are noted by a plus.

Best PICTURE nominees

"A Beautiful Mind" + "Gosford Park"   "In the Bedroom"   "Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring"   "Moulin Rouge"

WINNER

"A Beautiful Mind"

Best DIRECTOR nominees

Robert Altman, "Gosford Park" Ron Howard, "A Beautiful Mind" + Peter Jackson, "Lord of the Rings"   David Lynch, "Mulholland Drive"   Ridley Scott, "Black Hawk Down"

WINNER

Ron Howard, "A Beautiful Mind"

Best ACTOR nominees

Russell Crowe, "A Beautiful Mind"   Sean Penn, "I Am Sam"   Will Smith, "Ali" + Denzel Washington, "Training Day"   Tom Wilkinson, "In the Bedroom"

WINNER

Denzel Washington, "Training Day"

Best ACTRESS nominees

Halle Berry, "Monster's Ball" + Judi Dench, "Iris"   Nicole Kidman, "Moulin Rouge" Sissy Spacek, "In the Bedroom"   Renee Zellweger, "Bridget Jones's Diary"

WINNER

Halle Berry, "Monster's Ball"

Best SUPPORTING ACTOR nominees

Jim Broadbent, "Iris"   Ethan Hawke, "Training Day" + Ben Kingsley, "Sexy Beast"   Ian McKellan, "Lord of the Rings"   Jon Voight, "Ali"

WINNER

Jim Broadbent, "Iris"

Best SUPPORTING ACTRESS nominees

Jennifer Connelly, "A Beautiful Mind"   Helen Mirren, "Gosford Park"   Maggie Smith, "Gosford Park"   Marisa Tomei, "In the Bedroom" + Kate Winslet, "Iris"

WINNER

Jennifer Connelly, "A Beautiful Mind"

Best ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY nominees

"Amélie," Guillaume Laurant & Jean-Pierre Jeunet   "Gosford Park," Julian Fellowes + "Memento," Christopher Nolan   "Monster's Ball," Milo Addica & Will Rokos   "The Royal Tenenbaums," Wes Anderson & Owen Wilson

WINNER

"Gosford Park," Julian Fellowes

Best ADAPTED SCREENPLAY nominees

"A Beautiful Mind," Akiva Goldsman + "Ghost World," Terry Zwigoff & Daniel Clowes   "In the Bedroom," Rob Festinger & Todd Field   "Lord of the Rings," Peter Jackson, Fran Walsh & Philippa Boynes   "Shrek," Ted Elliot, Terry Rossio, Joe Stillman & Roger S.H. Schulman

WINNER

"A Beautiful Mind," Akiva Goldsman

Best ANIMATED FEATURE nominees

"Jimmy Neutron: Boy Genius" + "Monsters, Inc." "Shrek"

WINNER

"Shrek"

Best DOCUMENTARY nominees

"Children Underground"   "Lalee's Kin: The Legacy of Cotton"   "Murder On a Sunday Morning" "Promises"   "War Photographer" + (no "should win" pick)

WINNER

"Murder On a Sunday Morning"

Best FOREIGN FILM nominees

+ "Amélie" (France)   "Elling" (Norway)   "Lagaan" (India)   "No Man's Land" (Bosnia)   "Son of the Bride" (Argentina)

WINNER

"No Man's Land"

Best CINEMATOGRAPHY nominees

"Amélie"   "Black Hawk Down" "The Man Who Wasn't There" + "Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring"   "Moulin Rouge"

WINNER

"Lord of the Rings"

Best EDITING nominees

"A Beautiful Mind"   "Black Hawk Down"   "Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring" + "Memento"   "Moulin Rouge"

WINNER

"Black Hawk Down"

Best SOUND nominees

"Amélie" + "Black Hawk Down"   "Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring" "Moulin Rouge"   "Pearl Harbor"

WINNER

"Black Hawk Down"

Best SOUND EDITING nominees

"Monsters, Inc." + "Pearl Harbor"

WINNER

"Pearl Harbor"

Best VISUAL EFFECTS nominees

"A.I.: Artificial Intelligence" + "Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring"   "Pearl Harbor"

WINNER

"Lord of the Rings"

Best ART DIRECTION nominees

"Amélie"   "Gosford Park"   "Harry Potter & the Sorcerer's Stone"   "Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring"   "Moulin Rouge" (prediction was a toss-up between "Rings" & "Rouge") + (my pick was a tie between "Amélie," "Rings" & "Rouge")

WINNER

"Moulin Rouge"

Best COSTUMES nominees

"The Affair of the Necklace"   "Gosford Park"   "Harry Potter & the Sorcerer's Stone"   "Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring" + "Moulin Rouge"

WINNER

"Moulin Rouge"

Best MAKEUP nominees

"A Beautiful Mind" + "Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring"   "Moulin Rouge"

WINNER

"Lord of the Rings"

Best ORIGINAL SCORE nominees

"A.I.: Artificial Intelligence"   "A Beautiful Mind"   "Harry Potter & the Sorcerer's Stone" "Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring"   "Monsters, Inc." + (Didn't have a pick, didn't like any of them)

WINNER

"Lord of the Rings"

Best ORIGINAL SONG nominees

"If I Didn't Have You" from "Monsters, Inc." "It May Be" from "Lord of the Rings"   "There You'll Be" from "Pearl Harbor"   "Until" from "Kate & Leopold"   "Vanilla Sky" from "Vanilla Sky" + (didn't have a pick, this is a ridiculous category)

WINNER

"If I Didn't Have You" from "Monsters, Inc."