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predicted WINNER
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"American Beauty"
WHY: DreamWorks is bound and determined to not have a "Private Ryan" repeat. Besides, it's an ingenious movie with the most deeply-felt characters of all the nominees and a bigger prestige piece than the other four films combined.
What should win: "American Beauty"
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predicted WINNER
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Sam Mendes, "American Beauty"
WHY: Because despite last year's rare split, Picture and Director go hand-in-hand.
What should win: Mendes
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predicted WINNER
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Denzel Washington, "The Hurricane"
WHY: He burns with the festering, subterranean anger of miscarried justice in this true-life tale perfectly suited to his brand of charismatic integrity. Plus he has a barnstorming edge-of-insanity monologue that just screams "Oscar!"
Who should win: Kevin Spacey (but I'd happy with a tie between these two)
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predicted WINNER
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Annette Bening, "American Beauty"
WHY: Because its a safer play than giving the award to Swank, who deserves it for her unfettered, unflinching performance as a charming, delicately chiseled, cross-gender cowboy. The Academy can acknowledge gay characters (Tom Hanks won for "Philadelphia"), but only when they're not sexually active on screen.
Who should win: Hilary Swank
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predicted WINNER
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Tom Cruise, "Magnolia"
WHY: Because the Academy is dying to give him something and he'll never win Best Actor. Truthfully however, this one's is up for grabs. "Sixth Sense" wouldn't have been the same without Osment, Clarke Duncan has an equal shot, and Caine won the Screen Actors' Guild award on March 12, putting him within striking distance.
Who should win: Osment
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predicted WINNER
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Angelina Jolie, "Girl, Interrupted"
WHY: Pedigree and potential. The fantastically talented Jolie is the daughter of Oscar winner Jon Voight, and while her SAG Award-winning performance in "Girl" isn't all that different from her Golden Globe-winning role as "Gia" a few years back, she leaves a huge impression in an otherwise lackluster movie.
Who should win: Samantha Morton
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predicted WINNER
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"American Beauty," Alan Ball
WHY: Even on paper, "Beauty" is gripping, and it will have momentum from the other Oscars it's taking home. The inventiveness of "Malkovich" and "Magnolia" are too off-kilter for the mainstream Academy, and as good as "Sixth Sense" is, it's just a summer blockbuster, after all, with no prestige value.
What should win: "Malkovich"
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predicted WINNER
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"The Cider House Rules," John Irving
WHY: Consolation prize. This will be "Cider House's" only win in seven nominations.
What should win: "Election"
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predicted WINNER
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"The Talented Mr. Ripley"
WHY: The clothes truly added something to the characters in "Ripley." They may not have been the most spectacular of the bunch, but they were the most effective.
What should win: "Ripley"
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predicted WINNER
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"Austin Powers 2"
WHY: Actually, I'm just hoping "Bicentennial Man" and "Life" don't win. The aging makeup in those movie was anything but seamless.
What should win: "Austin Powers 2"
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predicted WINNER
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"Snow Falling On Cedars"
WHY: Every frame of "Cedars" was gorgeous. You could practically smell the forest. Besides, major outdoorsy photography always wins and this is the only movie that qualifies.
What should win: "The Insider"
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predicted WINNER
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"The Sixth Sense"
WHY: Editing was the key to this movie keeping its secret. But truth be told, I'm guessing again. The only one that would surprise me would be "Cider House."
What should win: "The Matrix"
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predicted WINNER
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"The Phantom Menace"
WHY: Technical Oscars just go to "Star Wars" movies. It's a fact of life.
What should win: "The Mummy"
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predicted WINNER
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"The Phantom Menace"
WHY: Tradition. "The Matrix" was far more original and spectacular, but "Phantom" was more than half computer-generated and it is "Star Wars," after all.
What should win: "The Matrix"
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FOREIGN FILM
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NOMINEES
"All About My Mother" (Spain)
"Caravan" (Nepal)
"East-West" (France)
"Solomon & Gaenor" (UK)
"Under the Sun" (Sweden)
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predicted WINNER
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"All About My Mother" (Spain)
WHY: Because it came close to being nominated for Best Picture.
What should win: "East-West"
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DOCUMENTARY
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NOMINEES
"Buena Vista Social Club"
"Genghis Blues"
"On the Ropes"
"One Day in September"
"Speaking In Strings"
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predicted WINNER
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"Buena Vista Social Club"
WHY: Guessing. Haven't seen any of them, but "Buena Vista" had by far the best buzz.
What should win: No pick. Haven't seen them. :-(
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predicted WINNER
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"The Talented Mr. Ripley," Gabriel Yared
WHY: It's a brilliant homage to Bernard Herrmann's Hitchcock soundtracks. Although a "Red Violin" win wouldn't surprise me. Voters seem to have a penchant for the suprise foreign film nod in this category (last year it was "Life Is Beautiful").
What should win: "Ripley"
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predicted WINNER
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"When She Loved Me" from "Toy Story 2"
WHY: Because it's the most bland of the bunch, and that seems to be par for the course in this category.
What should win: "Save Me" from "Magnolia"
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